Take the Brewers in a big NL Central showdown, plus other best bets for Friday
The Brewers have won four of five and nine of their last 13
By
Tom Fornelli
•
3 min read
IThis is an article version of the CBS Sports HQ PM Newsletter, the ultimate daily sports gambling guide. You can sign up to get it in your inbox every weekday afternoon here.
All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Brewers at Pirates, 7:05 p.m. | TV: AppleTV+
- Key Trend: The Pirates have lost 12 of their last 16 games.
- The Pick: Brewers (-140)
Once upon a time, the Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the best stories of the 2023 baseball season. The Buccos were in first place in the NL Central after April, sitting at 20-9 with a 1.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers. Things have changed.
After going 8-18 in May, the Pirates are 10-15 in June and have fallen to 38-42. They're 4.5 games out of first, where both the Brewers and Cincinnati Reds find themselves in a dead heat. The good news is the Pirates are playing well right now. They enter this weekend's series on a three-game win streak with a chance to gain ground on the Brewers.
The bad news is I don't anticipate that being what happens. The Brewers aren't great and have a run differential of -21 on the season (oddly, the only NL Central team with a positive run differential is the fourth-place Chicago Cubs), but they've performed well against the division. Milwaukee is 11-5 against NL Central opponents, including a 3-0 record against the Pirates.
The Brewers are playing pretty well right now themselves, having won four of five and nine of their last 13. Also, while Pirates starter Osvaldo Bido has pitched pretty well in 15.2 innings, his minor league track record and the fact he's a 27-year-old rookie don't give me a lot of reason to believe it will continue. This could be a problem since the Pirates' bullpen had to cover 4.1 innings last night and used four different pitchers.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Projection Model thinks I'm a genius.
💰 MLB picks
Giants at Mets, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Alex Cobb Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-175) -- We're paying a heavy price on this one, but it's fine. San Francisco starter Alex Cobb has made 14 starts in 2023, finishing 11 with at least four strikeouts. That includes his last five starts, which have seen him strike out an average of 6.4 strikeouts and a strikeout rate of 26.2%. That's well above his rate of 22.5% on the season and 23.9% over the last three seasons.
So why is the total only 3.5? The first is that while Cobb has struck out a lot of hitters lately, he's never been a high-volume K artist, and his swinging strike rates aren't incredible. Plus, for all their faults, the Mets have the fifth-lowest strikeout rate in MLB. Even after considering all that, I'm confident enough in Cobb getting to four to pay this price.
Rays at Mariners, 10:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Mariners (+118) -- Shane McClanahan is one of the best pitchers in baseball. He's also a pitcher I like to fade occasionally because, as good as he is, his control sometimes gets away from him. McClanahan comes into the evening with a walk rate of 9.4%, which is 10% worse than the league average. Hitters also have a barrel rate of 10% against him, so when they do make contact, it's hard. That sometimes leads to unexpected results.
Furthermore, McClanahan left his last start a week ago with tightness in his back. He lasted only 3.2 innings against the Royals, and while he didn't give up many runs or hits, he wasn't missing many bats, either. The Rays wouldn't be sending him out tonight if they weren't confident his back was better, but a week off isn't always the best thing for a starter who sometimes loses command.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: NASCAR is taking to the streets of Chicago this weekend and SportsLine's Mike McClure has everything you need to know to make money on it.
